Wildlife

Ecosystems will break up

As animals and plants shift their ranges to adapt to changing conditions, entire communities will not always shift intact. Since different species have different tolerances, they will move at different rates. Large animals move more quickly than smaller animals in response to changing environment, and small animals move more quickly than plants. However, interstates and natural barriers may prevent some relocations.

The IPCC makes the following predictions for ecosystems given changing temperatures:

• A 1.3- to 2.7-degree Fahrenheit change could cause extinction of 9 to 31% of species.
• A 2.8- to 3.3-degree temperature increase could cause extinction of 15 to 37% of species.
• With a 3.3- to 7-degree increase, we could see extinction of 21-52% of species.

It is likely that Illinois will fall at the lower end of these extinction scenarios, as locations with the greatest diversity of species, such as tropical rainforests, are expected to see the greatest rates of extinction.

Songbirds populations will lose diversity

The Union of Concerned Scientists predicts that global warming will result in less diversity of forest birds. Earlier springs may mean that plants and insects emerge earlier, causing birds to miss the peak times for their main sources of food. The UCS predicts an overall 29% decline in songbird populations. The Audubon Society reports that bird populations are currently shifting northward by an average of 35 miles.

The North American Bird Phenology Program is currently undertaking a project to compile notes by birdwatchers all over the country to learn more about how climate change is affecting bird populations. More information about effects for birds can be found at the State of the Birds Report or through the Associated Press.

More warm-water fish, less cold-water species

The IPCC predicts that every 1.8-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase will mean an 8% loss in habitat for freshwater fish.

The Union of Concerned Scientists predicts that types of fish will change dramatically. An experiment in Minnesota lakes showed that a doubling of carbon dioxide produced:

• A 50-75% increase of warm-water fish, such as bluegill, carp, yellow bullhead, brown bullhead, smallmouth bass, and drum fish.
• A 15-40% increase of cool-water fish, such as channel catfish, white crappie, walleye, and northern pike.
• A 60-80% decrease in cold-water fish, including rainbow trout, lake trout, brown trout, coho salmon, and chinook salmon.

The fishing industry plays a significant role in our economy. Fishpals.net reports that Illinois is home to 203 species of fish. The fishing industry supports 13,000 jobs in the state and accounts for $1.6 billion of our economic output.

Pests may proliferate

Less severe winters will make survival easier for various pests. The UCS predicts an increase in forest-destroying gypsy moths, among other insects. "As winters warm, those insects will almost certainly become more widely spread throughout the region," the UCS reported. The Union also anticipates an increase in the kudzu insect, known as "soybean rust" for the harm is causes to the crop. The UCS says that complex ecological systems prevent accurate predictions for other insects.

The Union also predicts that milder winters will mean fewer winter deaths for nuisance mammals, such as raccoons, possums, and skunks. These predators may cause harm to smaller ground animals and to nesting songbirds.

Other animals will also change habitats

Though scientists are investigating the effect of climate change for wildlife, we currently lack detailed information about what will happen to many species as the world warms. However, we can make the following general predictions:

• Migrating butterflies are expected to arrive earlier to their summer destinations.
• In addition, 30-75% of butterfly species are currently moving northward, while less than 20% are moving southward. A continued northward trend is predicted.
• Insect ranges are expected to shift northward following changes in distribution of their host trees.
• The Illinois population of white-tailed deer will likely increase.
• Small temperature changes (3 degrees Fahrenheit) will have little effect on livestock, but larger increases (9 to 11 degrees) may cause up to a 10% decline in dairy livestock.

Forest types will change

Carl Bernacchi, professor of plant biology at the University of Illinois, explains that forests will adapt slowly to changing environment because each generation lasts decades; this is much longer than the life cycle of many other plants, whose life generation may only last a year.

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program predicts that as tree populations shift northward, Illinois will experience several changes in forest type.

By the end of the century, we may see fewer:

• Elm
• Ash
• Cottonwood
• Pine

We can expect to see more:

• Oak
• Gum
• Cypress

We may also see a shift as Oak and Hickory forests move from southern to northern Illinois.

The quick gauge

• Species shifts will break up ecosystems.
• Songbird populations may decrease.
• Populations of insects and other pests are expected to increase.
• We will see more warm-water fish, while populations of cold-water fish will decline.
• Responses of other animal populations are complex and unpredictable, but most species will likely shift northward.
• Forest types will change slowly.

Climate change has already affected the bird population."

-Azadeh Ansari, of CNN.

"Gypsy moths defoliate more hardwood forests than any other insect in North America... As winters warm, these insects will almost certainly become more widely established."

• The Union of Concerned Scientists