What is this site?

Illinois Change Gauge examines how different degrees of climate change would affect the state. Scientist Xin-Zhong Liang from the Illinois State Water Survey estimates that a reasonable range of temperature increase is one to six degrees Celsius (1.8 to 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit). Each temperature change would bring different changes in precipitation. The combinations of temperature and precipitation will lead to changes in:

Why the range of values?

We don't know for sure what the future will hold. At best, scientists can make educated guesses.

First, we must determine what our future greenhouse gas emissions will be. This is based on a variety of factors. The International Panel on Climate Change has created emissions scenarios based on several factors:

In addition, we must determine how future emissions will affect the planet and the climate. We are currently unsure about how the planet will respond to increased levels of greenhouse gases.

Why can't we use specific scenarios?

The International Panel on Climate Change has created six scenarios that account for the above factors and make predictions are climate change on a global scale. However, scientist Xin-Zhong Liang from the Illinois State Water Survey explains that global models are not adequate for talking about local areas. "When you use the global model, that is too extreme," he said.

Liang and other scientists at ISWS are working on interpreting the global models in a local context. Because this work takes vast amounts of computer processing, it is not yet complete.

In addition, each global scenario gives an emissions value, but how this emissions value will affect the planet is based on interpretations by dozens of models. The models must also be evaluated at a local level to determine which one makes the best predictions for Illinois

Right now, the various scenarios and models encompass a range of about one to six degrees of temperature change in Illinois in the next 100 years.

How has the climate changed so far, and what is our role?

The Rough Guide to Climate Change by Robert Henson cites a 2.3 degree Fahrenheit global temperature increase in the past century. Slight cooling in the 1940s and 1970s affected primarily North America, and scientists never agreed on the idea of global cooling, says Henson.

The United States has played a large role in the greenhouse gas emissions provoking climate change. Henson cites the U.S. as the largest contributor of carbon dioxide emissions as of 2004; we produced 20.9% of world emissions. However, we ranked only ninth in per capita emissions in the same year. Qatar and Kuwait topped the per capita emissions list.

Oh, and — who made this site?

Thanks for asking. My name is Lindsay Ignatowski and I’m a master’s journalism student at the University of Illinois. I’ve always been interested in weather, green issues, and climate change, so I produced this site for an independent study class project. The site was created in the spring of 2009 and was last updated on May 15, 2009.

Feel free to contact me at lindsay@ilchangegauge.com with questions or comments about the site.

quote mark Climate change is real and already under way."

-Union of Concerned Scientists


"The pace of global warming is likely to be much faster than recent predictions, because industrial greenhouse gas emissions have increased more quickly than expected and higher temperatures are triggering self-reinforcing feedback mechanisms."

• The Washington Post,2009

"We haven't seen the warming here (in Illinois) that they've seen in other places."

• Jim Angel of the Illinois State Water Survey, talking about the global warming "hole" over the Midwest.

"The effects of climate variability and change ripple throughout the environment and society - indeed touching nearly all aspects of the human endeavor and the environment."

• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration