Scenario B2

We make changes at the local level

This scenario paints a picture of a very heterogeneous world in which world regions maintain independence and rely little on each other. Specifically, the A2 storyline shows a future world with:

• Moderate population growth
• Intermediate levels of economic development
• Economies shift to focus on service and information
• Technology changes in diverse ways, but slowly
• In contrast to B1, we focus on local solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability

Greenhouse gas emissions increase slowly

Though world regions do not exhibit the strong cohesion of the B1 scenario, we work slowly toward local solutions and see a slow yet significant increase in the rate of our emissions. The following table shows the estimate for yearly greenhouse gas output (measured in gigatons of carbon dioxide) in the B2 scenario:

This scenario presents us with a moderate end-of-century yearly emissions rate that falls in the mid-range of the IPCC's scenarios.

Although world nations do not work together to develop sustainable systems, each region does slowly work toward changing their fuel sources and economies. Lacking global cohesion, these changes take place relatively slowly, and so we see moderate growth in both population and income worldwide. Greenhouse gases increase through the end of the century, but begin to level off near the end of the century.

Temperature increases moderately

With these rates of greenhouse gas emissions, the IPCC predicts that the global temperature will increase by 2.5 to 6.8 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. This increase will be felt differently through the world, with some regions seeing smaller increases and others seeing greater change.

More detailed information from the IPCC about the future world picture in the A2 scenario can be found here.