Scenario B1

Technology and economic structures change

This scenario paints a picture of a very heterogeneous world in which world regions maintain independence and rely little on each other. Specifically, the A2 storyline shows a future world with:

• Fewer differences between world regions (similar to A1)
• Slow population growth (similar to that of A1)
• Economies shift to focus on service and information
• Development of clean and resource-efficient technology
• Global solutions to economic, social and environmental sustainability

Greenhouse gas emissions plummet

The world's cohesion and rapid adoption of sustainable changes lead to a scenario in which greenhouse gases rise slowly through mid-century and then decline below 1990 levels. The following table shows the estimate for yearly greenhouse gas output (measured in gigatons of carbon dioxide) in the B1 scenario:

This scenario presents us with a low end-of-century yearly emissions rate comparable only to the A1T (abandonment of fossil fuels) scenario and predicts lower emission rates than all other scenarios.

Because world nations work together to develop their economies and clean technologies, we change quickly and eventually change our trend of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Differences between world regions begin to decline as we focus on finding global solutions to develop a sustainable way of life.

Temperature increases slightly

With these rates of greenhouse gas emissions, the IPCC predicts that the global temperature will increase by 2 to 5.2 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. This increase will be felt differently through the world, with some regions seeing smaller increases and others seeing greater change.

More detailed information from the IPCC about the future world picture in the A2 scenario can be found here.