Scenario A2

A localized and slowly changing world

This scenario paints a picture of a very heterogeneous world in which world regions maintain independence and rely little on each other. Specifically, the A2 storyline shows a future world with:

• Self-reliance
• Preservation of local identity
• High population growth continues in undeveloped nations
• World economies grow slowly and independently of each other
• New technologies are developed and adopted slowly

Greenhouse gas emissions soar

The world's fragmentation and slow pace of change lead to a scenario in which greenhouse gases increase steadily and greatly. The following table shows the estimate for yearly greenhouse gas output (measured in gigatons of carbon dioxide) in the A2 scenario:

This scenario presents us with an end-of-century yearly emissions rate comparable only to the A1FI (fossil fuel intensive) scenario and predicts higher rates than all other scenarios.

Because world nations don't work together to develop their economies and technologies, we change slowly and continue our trend of increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Differences between world regions remain great: undeveloped nations see spikes in their population and little economic growth, while developed nations continue to maintain a large part of the world's wealth.

Temperature increases greatly

With these rates of greenhouse gas emissions, the IPCC predicts that the global temperature will increase by 3.6 to 9.7 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century. This increase will be felt differently through the world, with some regions seeing smaller increases and others seeing greater change.

More detailed information from the IPCC about the future world picture in the A2 scenario can be found here.